The EU installed about 65 to 70 GW of solar in 2025, and the forecast for 2026 is nearly identical. That's the plateau. It's also a bit above the 62.8 GW SolarPower Europe counted for 2023. So is demand surging or stalling? Both, depending on which segment you look at. The 2030 goal is 750 GW of cumulative solar under REPowerEU, and the trade body now expects the EU to miss it. Here's what's driving the numbers, and what that means if you're buying.
Is EU Solar Demand Plateauing, and Why Is Rooftop Wobbly?
Let's start with the data, because the old version of this article got the story wrong. It treated 2023's record as the start of an unbroken climb. It wasn't.
SolarPower Europe reported 65.6 GW installed in 2024 and, in December 2025, 65.1 GW for 2025: the first annual decline since 2016, by 0.7 percent. The fleet still hit 406 GW, clearing the 400 GW milestone for 2025. Then the September 2026 mid-year update revised 2025 up to 69.6 GW, so the dip may not survive the revision. What matters is the shape. H1 2026 came in at 33.8 GW against 33.2 GW a year earlier, a 1.9 percent rise, and the full-year central forecast is 68.1 GW (range 62 to 74.1 GW), up 6.6 GW from the 61.5 GW it projected in December.
The mix is shifting fast. Residential rooftop made up 28 percent of new capacity in 2023 and only 14 percent in 2025, while solar farms passed 50 percent of additions for the first time. For 2026 the association expects roughly 56 percent utility-scale and 44 percent rooftop. Fourteen member states added more than 1 GW in 2025, down from 16 in 2024.
There's one genuine tailwind. Solar met a record 25 percent of EU electricity in June 2026, and SolarPower Europe estimates that solar avoided roughly EUR 30 billion in gas imports between March and August, a period pv magazine ties to a Middle East escalation. Hard to argue with that economics.
The EU isn't short of demand for solar. It's short of policy that makes the rooftop part pay.
How Is EU Policy Shifting Toward Mandates Over Support?
REPowerEU, launched after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, named solar the fastest route away from imported gas. Three pieces of EU law now set the frame.
The 750 GW target. The EU Solar Strategy set 750 GW (DC) by 2030. SolarPower Europe's December 2025 medium scenario lands at 718 GW, and member states' national energy and climate plans add up to only 701 GW. The shortfall is roughly 32 GW on the association's numbers.
Solar on buildings. Under Article 10 of the recast Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (2024/1275), member states must deploy solar on new public and non-residential buildings above 250 m2 by 31 December 2026, on existing public buildings above 2,000 m2 by the end of 2027, and on new residential buildings by the end of 2029. The directive's national transposition deadline was 29 May 2026. That creates demand that doesn't depend on payback math.
Faster permits. The revised Renewable Energy Directive (2023/2413) caps permitting for solar on existing or future artificial structures at three months, and at one month for equipment of 100 kW or less, according to trade-body briefings on the text. Transposition has been slow: the Commission opened infringement proceedings against 26 of 27 member states after the 21 May 2025 deadline passed. So a legal right to a fast permit doesn't mean your local authority gives you one.
Where Is the New EU Solar Capacity Going?
Germany remains the largest market. The Bundesnetzagentur counted 16.4 GW added in 2025, slightly below 2024, taking the fleet to 117 GW. Just under half sat on buildings. To reach its own 215 GW goal for 2030, Germany needs roughly 19.6 GW a year. And the policy ground is moving: a cabinet draft from late July 2026 would end the fixed feed-in tariff for new rooftop systems under 25 kW from 2027, replacing it with a transition payment of up to three years. It still needs parliament, and the German solar association has called the transition payment inadequate.
Spain installed 10.1 GW in 2025, according to the UNEF data reported by pv magazine: 8.97 GW ground-mounted (up 31 percent) and 1.14 GW self-consumption. The pain point is price. Spain logged 797 hours of zero or negative power prices in 2025, and the average captured solar price fell from EUR 42.28/MWh to EUR 36.39/MWh. Behind-the-meter batteries grew 65 percent, to 540 MWh.
France moved into the top three in 2025 on utility-scale growth. Italy fell back as its rooftop segment contracted after incentives ended. Poland declined in 2025 but rebounded in H1 2026, up 39 percent year on year. Romania and Bulgaria entered the top ten for the first time. And the Netherlands plunged to eighth place; its net metering scheme ends on 1 January 2027, after which suppliers set their own rates for exported power.
| Country | 2025 pattern | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 16.4 GW, fleet 117 GW | Draft end of fixed feed-in tariff for new systems under 25 kW |
| Spain | 10.1 GW, mostly ground-mounted | Negative-price hours, behind-the-meter storage growth |
| France | Top three, utility-scale led | Reduced rooftop incentives |
| Italy | Dropped out of top three | Rooftop contraction after incentive phase-out |
| Poland | Declined in 2025 | Up 39 percent in H1 2026 |
| Netherlands | Fell to eighth | Net metering ends 1 January 2027 |
Why Did Module Prices Turn Around in 2026?
The old story was record-low modules. The 2026 story is a rebound. China announced on January 26, 2026 that it would scrap its 9 percent PV export tax rebate, effective April 1, and PV Tech reported a jump in quotes and panic buying beforehand. pv magazine also pointed to high silver costs.
By mid-year, sun.store's pv.index showed European prices of EUR 0.116/Wp for bifacial TOPCon, EUR 0.122/Wp for monofacial TOPCon and EUR 0.130/Wp for full-black modules in August 2026, with July readings reported by PV Tech between EUR 0.11 and EUR 0.138/Wp depending on type. Compare that with the sub-0.10 level this article quoted before. Buyer sentiment is cooling, too: the PV purchasing managers' index fell to 65 in July and August.
So is cheap solar over? No. A module is still a small share of a rooftop job, and Europe's installers haven't repriced labor to match it. But anyone waiting for another price collapse is betting against the trend of 2026.
One more structural point. European manufacturing didn't catch the wave. Meyer Burger's German subsidiaries filed for insolvency on May 31, 2025, after its Freiberg module plant had already closed in 2024, and its German operations have been largely dismantled. Installers remain dependent on Chinese modules.
What Does the Surge Mean for Buyers in 2026?
Electricity prices still favor self-generation. Eurostat puts the EU household average at EUR 0.2896/kWh in the second half of 2025, with Germany at EUR 0.3869 and Hungary at EUR 0.1082. Every kWh you self-consume avoids that retail price. Every kWh you export earns far less.
Storage matters more every year. As feed-in tariffs and net metering fade, a battery turns midday generation into evening savings. Spain's 65 percent jump in behind-the-meter storage says buyers have noticed.
Don't count on a subsidy staying put. Rooftop incentives were cut or are being cut in France, Czechia and Germany. If a scheme you're relying on is still a draft, read the transition rules before you sign.
Plan for the building mandates. From 2026 new commercial and public buildings in the EU need solar, and that work will compete with homes for installer time. Our own view: the clearest opening for homeowners isn't a price drop. It's a quote you accept before the rules change.
For renters and flat-dwellers the cheapest way in is a balcony kit. The rest of the picture sits in three companion guides.
EU solar guides
- EU balcony solar regulations: wattage caps, plug rules and registration, country by country.
- EU solar battery storage rules: what exporters are paid in Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, and which battery rules apply.
- Solar grid parity in Europe: solar cost per kWh against retail rates in Spain, Germany, Italy, France and Poland.
Summary
The EU solar market isn't collapsing, but it isn't surging either. Annual additions sit near 68 to 70 GW, utility-scale projects carry the growth, and rooftop is the weak segment as national support retreats. SolarPower Europe expects the 750 GW target to be missed, with 718 GW in its medium case. Mandates on public and commercial buildings add a policy-driven floor, while gas-import savings and record solar shares keep the political case strong.